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As the home-buying season begins in earnest in many parts of the country, Southeast Florida – which enjoyed an unusually mild winter, to the dismay of many including me – continues on its path of odd market behaviour, namely rapidly shrinking inventory accompanied by mildly rising asking and selling prices.
As dramatic as the numbers for single family home sales are, looking at the Tri-County area won't tell the whole picture, so I will briefly point out some of the differences between Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade... please read on at the blog The Modernist Angle
_"Use your mentality, wake up to reality..."
Lyrics from Cole Porter's famous "I've got you under my skin", written in 1936, came to my mind this month. I admit that I have Nicole Henry's lovely version of that song constantly in my ears and on iTunes. To me, uptempo–and perhaps the great American Songbook–just seems to be her forte.
So, is Nicole singing to or even for home buyers?
I doubt it. But the February numbers for single family homes (condos, coops and townhouses not included) should get prospective buyers thinking of Cole Porter.
In essence, more or less stable asking prices and (year-over-year) slightly soft selling prices created a very very active market in February–with dramatically falling inventory (may I say "dramatically" when it's 50 percent or more?) and a hefty spike in the number of sold houses.
As always, the table is accompanied by a lovely graphic:
Coming back to Nicole Henry and her Cole Porter interpretation: time for buyers to wake up. True, not every buyer is flexible in his or her plans, but those who are should get off the benches. Now.
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Table: Single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties. Chart: Single family home data Mar 2011 to Feb 2012. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS. Also published at http://www.TheModernistAngle.com._
Several regular readers have suggested to post the monthly market data for home sales also on my blog. I'd be happy to: Starting this month, they will appear here as well as on http://www.themodernistangle.com
To business: January mostly continued the December trend – a dwindling number of houses on the market, increased asking prices overall but softer asking and selling prices for those homes that actually closed.
Are sellers asleep at the wheel? Because why would anyone increase the asking price, when in actuality prices are giving in (4.5% month-over-month and 6.8% year-ver-year)? Doesn't make much sense.
What I suspect is typified by a modernist seller in North Broward: the property is on the market with different four agents since 2008, so they just raised the price again by $100k. Clever; they must know something no one else knows ("my property is so much better than the rest"). Too bad buyers are too dumb to see the light. I don't see it, either.
In general, the market is far from homogeneous: trophy properties as well as those sectors most in demand – say $200,000 to $500,000 – are rapidly disappearing, and there is no sign this will change. In modern architecture, the availabilities are even tighter (as regular readers know, I compile but do not publish monthly market data for modern home sales anymore. They are available for clients and appraisers on request).
There is also a distinct incline heading north from Dade to Broward to Palm Beach, both in regards to asking as well as to selling prices, absolut and per square foot.
The January numbers:  Single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties.
And the matching chart:
 Single family home data Feb 2011 to Jan 2012. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS
If you have any questions, or would like more detailed data pertaining to a purchase or sale you consider, please let me know – I look forward to hearing from you.
_Quiet December wasn't so quiet after all, it turns out.
Real Estate newsletters bombard you with news about skyrocketing condo sales in Miami (who's buying?) but the market for houses was also rather lively for this time of the year. Too bad that my tools don't allow a seller origin analysis.
All the activity didn't translate into price changes though: listing as well as selling prices didn't move m-o-m, while y-o-y there was a 10 percent dent to be observed. In the same time though, inventory dropped a hefty 24% (I added y-o-y changes behind the m-o-m changes to mix things up a bit for you). Again, supply and demand rules seem not to be applicable right now:
- Houses for sale: 19,784 (-1.2% / -24.4%)
- Inventory: 6.5 (-6.4% / -30.4%)
- Median list price: $303,800 (0.5% / -3.0%)
- Med. list price per sf: $143 (99.8% / -10.4%)
- Houses sold last mo: 3,065 (4.8% / 4.4%)
- Med. selling price: $196,000 (0% / -10.9%)
- Med. selling price per sf: $99 (0% / -10.5%)
 _Table: single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties. Changes are month-over-month / year-over-year.
Chart: Single family home data Jan 2011 to Dec 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS
Overshadowed by the Thanksgiving holiday, _November sales of single family homes tend to begin quiet and then come to a slow crawl.
The last part of that statement will be seen in December, but overall there certainly wasn't much movement. However, inventory keeps falling, with stable prices, which in itself is astonishing.
- Houses for sale: 20,031 (-1.6%)
- Inventory: 6.9 mos (-6.4%)
- Median list price: 301,500 (+0.5%)
- Median list price per sf: $143 (no change)
- Houses sold last month: 3,065 (+4.8%)
- Median selling price: $189,467 (no change)
- Median selling price per sf: $97 (no change)
Though inventory is over 17% lower in November 2011 than November 2010, year over year prices have dropped by 10%. So dwindling inventory does not always equate rising or even stable prices. At least so far.
_Table: single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties. Changes are month-over-month.
Chart: Single family home data Dec 2010 to Nov 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS
Matching the greyish economic mood in large parts of the country, October numbers for single family homes are a dull story. While the number of houses lingering on the market didn’t budge much, the number of closed sales dropped quite a bit month-over-month, 20 percent to be exact. That of course results in rising home inventory (though not in the modernist market!).
Interesting is that despite the lack of movement, neither listing nor selling prices changed – stubborness or lack of maneuvering room, due to having reached the bottom already? As some media point to increased pending sales, remember my previous warning about that number: it means nothing. I see quite a few transactions going in and out of contract more than once, an abnormaly several years ago. So for now, I will disregard pending sales alltogether.
The numbers for all Single Family Homes in the three counties:
- Houses for sale: 20,355 (-1.1%)
- Inventory (Mo): 7.4 (24.3%)
- Median list price: $300,000 (0.1%)
- Median list price per sf: $144 (100.2%)
- Houses sold last month: 2,756 (-20.2%)
- Median selling price: $178,300 (0.1%)
- Median selling price per sf: $97 (-2.7%)
Table: all regional single family homes for sale/sold; data per last month’s end. Changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data October 2010 to October 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
Because of overseas business travel, I did not have a chance to analyse the raw data and publish September statistics. My apologies.
At some point, if you read this column regularly, you must think I'm a grumpy old fart, uncontent and miserable. And here grumpy goes again: What is it with the press?
Specifically, the housing numbers the press celebrated last and this week.
Perhaps you think I live on another planet, or had too much beer at the Wiesn (aka Oktoberfest–and no, I didn't make it this year.) Perhaps the housing data and headlines released for August have a self-serving purpose. But they are definitely nothing to be jubilant about, though that's what some media are–again–screaming into our ears.
THE SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKETDespite a tiny bit of action in Palm Beach County, overall nothing really improved last month:
- Median asking prices have held steady in all three counties. – Great. And that's the good news? Really?
- Median selling prices per square foot under air did not change in all three counties.
- Median selling prices increased a measly 3.0% in Palm Beach, but didn't budge in Broward and Miami-Dade. And year-over-year, median selling prices actually went down another 5.1%
- Inventory fell a bit–to a large part due to less foreclosures and short sales
The numbers for all Single Family Homes in the three counties:
- Houses for sale: 20,579 (-1.2%)
- Inventory: 6.2 months (-10.9%)
- Median list price: $299,667 (+0.6%)
- Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
- Houses sold last month: 3,454 (+10.4%)
- Median selling price: $184,833 (+0.8%)
- Median selling price per sf: $100 (+0.3%)
Table: all regional single family homes for sale/sold; data per last month’s end. Changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data August 2010 to August 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
As explained last month, I do not publish modern market data here anymore. Emphasis on here.
I still compile market and sales statistics for modern architecture, including asking and selling prices, prices per square foot, time on market and price differentials.
The complete data will continue to be available to my brokerage and consulting clients–just not publicly on this site. If you have an interest or need for modern market statistics, I welcome you to contact me anytime.
And as always: thanks for reading this column!
THE SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET
After the party comes the after-party. Or the hang-over.
And as so often, that’s the case here with July housing numbers. No wonder: June sales stats (for single family homes only; condos and townhomes are not subject of this column) were exceptional, while in July the general public experienced a congressional budget debate that was without precedence, tainted by obstructionism, vitriolic language and general nastiness. Consumers’ approval of Congress promptly dove way below 14 percent. Serves ‘em right.
But if that wasn’t enough, while politicians were slinging mud or worse, unemployment in South-East Florida didn’t budge. That sapped the will to sign on the dotted line from a large contingent of home buyers, especially those who have to face lenders.
Yes, those same lenders who would have given a mortgage to our Scottish Terriers a short while ago, and who now behave like a virgin facing a room full of gang-bangers. Who wants to buy a home under these conditions? Low rates alone don't cut it, friends.
If only sellers had noticed. They sure didn’t in July: while all median list prices went up a notch, median list prices of homes that actually sold plummeted nearly 10 percent, median selling prices went down more than 4 percent, and the numbers of houses that sold just tanked. A wake up call? We’ll see.
The July numbers:
- Houses for sale: 20,828 (-2.3%)
- Inventory: 7.0 months (+14.6%)
- Median list price: $298,000 (+1.7%)
- Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
- Houses sold last month: 3,128 (-11.5%)
- Median selling price: $183,333 (-4.5%)
- Median selling price per sf: $100 (-1.6%)
 Table: all regional single family homes for sale/sold; data per last month’s end. Changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data July 2010 to July 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
In case you are as modernist-crazed as I am, love stats and were looking forward to the newest market data for modern architecture: sorry, but no mas. At least not here.
What happened?
Simple: prospective consulting clients, a builder couple, approached me to assist them breaking into the South Florida market for modern homes. Part of the deal would have been my extensive modern-market statistics, going back at least six years. You know: past and present selling prices for modern architecture, which price ranges sell best, in which locations, in which towns, at what prices per square feet, with what type of amenities, etc.
But for free. That didn’t work for me as you can imagine. I am surely not going to give proprietary and valuable data away, not on this website nor in any other form.
I apologize to my three monthly regulars, but from now on, I will not publicize monthly modern market statistics anymore. The data is available to clients though, and if you are interested, please contact me. Sorry!
THE SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET
The market for single family homes in Southeast Florida (three counties Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade) in June proved the old saying again“In the month of June, housing sales see a boon”.
Ahem. Now you also know why some persons were not admitted into Rapping 101.
Seriously: as in the last four years, June is the month so far with the highest number of SFH closings in all three counties (in 2009 it tied with December). Those June closings would have been signed into contract in April or May.
Does that mean buyers want to buy before school’s out? Before it gets too hot? Before Memorial Day? This Realtor is at a loss to explain.
Some people may argue that winter should be the peak real estate season, when the Florida population swells and there are more potential buyers around, especially from colder climates. But not so, at least not for single family homes.
Another oddity: while inventory keeps tightening, prices still slide – not every month, but certainly year over year; minus 5.0 percent in this case. Go figure. The June numbers:
- SFH for sale: 21,318 (-3.2%)
- Inventory (months): 6 (-9.0%)
- Median list price: $293,150 (-0.4%)
- Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
- Houses sold last month: 3,536 (6.9%)
- Median selling price: $192,000 (0.3%)
- Median selling price per sf: $101 (-0.3%)
 Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data June 2010 to June 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: that's the dwindling inventory, in months. – Data source: SEF-MLSTHE MODERN HOME MARKETDespite what it looks like – a modernist inventory spike in June – there really isn’t one. Easy to say. But it doesn’t feel like an upswing in inventory; quite in contrast.
As explained last month, the number of available homes under $1M shrank by 25% year over year, the number offered under $500K went down by a hefty 45%. The little inventory uptick in June (per June 30th to 255 modern homes) has already been erased – as of writing this post, it is down again. And so are absolute listing and selling prices.(Data and graph temporarily not available – sorry)
Thinking about selling your modern home and need an inside perspective of the modernist market?
Out to buy, and need a Realtor who gets modernism?
Then please call me at 954.834.3088 or email me anytime – and until next month!
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