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THE SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET
Yes, there are still plenty of condominiums for sale. Yes, there are still many foreclosures, and a shadow inventory (properties not official on the market) of unknown proportions.
But for now, cherry-picking time is over.
At least thats what my observations during everyday searches for clients say and what statistics confirm. The market for single family houses in Southeast Florida has turned:
- inventory, falling for the fourth month in a row, is now at six months considered a balanced market
- asking prices have held more or less stable since beginning of the year
- asking prices of sold homes have increased steadily since January
- selling prices increased the fourth month in a row, by a hefty 7.2% in May
The biggest selling price gains go to Palm Beach county, which also takes the crown for the biggest increase in asking prices of sold homes and selling prices (8% m-o-m).
It seems I was too skeptical when I wrote in May I am not quite sure where some of the exuberant reported data on our regional market in April come from.
The market for all single family houses in May:
* Houses for sale: 22,025 (0.2%)
* Inventory: 6.7 months (10%)
* Median list price: $294,300 (+1.0%)
* Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
* Houses sold last month: 3,308 (+5.8%)
* Median selling price: $ 191,333 (+7.2%)
* Median selling price per sf: 102 (+3.0%) 
Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data May 2010 to May 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: that's the dwindling inventory, in months. – Data source: SEF-MLSTHE MODERN HOME MARKET
As always - read: since I write this blog - the modern market precedes the movement of the overall market. That can be interpreted good or bad currently bad for buyers, as there are less and less modernist homes to choose from.
Inventory is dwindling monthly if not weekly, in May dropping the sixth month in a row. Not a nice record to write about if your expertise and speciality is promoting and brokering modern architecture. Compared to one year ago, in the most active price range under $500,000 there are 45% (!) fewer modern houses for sale.
Translation: tough times for buyers, who will have to be patient to find the right property and ready to react – viewing it, finances lined up, and writing an offer – as soon as it becomes available.
Owners and sellers of modern homes: please contact me so we can meet for a cup of tea and a chat. Please!
Against all intuition (and the arguments of some of my clients, savvy investors in their own right), June has been the month with the highest number of closings in South Florida – at least during the last four years. I’ll let you know as soon as possible if this holds true for 2011 as well.
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In the meantime, thank you for reading this blog, let me know if you have any questions - and stay cool!
THE HOUSE MARKET OVERALL
The MLS data for April for Southeast Florida show a slight increase in selling prices for single family homes in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade county, while Broward county remained stable in volume and prices. Inventory is steady at seven months, very close to the normal range for a balanced market.
But the data raise two questions: with a plethora of short sales and foreclosures available (the latter often not on the MLS), it makes me wonder how small then must the non-distressed inventory be?
And secondly, as everyone has access to the same data set from the MLS, I am not quite sure where some of the exuberant reported data on our regional market in April comes from. Perhaps condos and townhomes? There certainly is activity and even selling price increases (6% m-o-m in Dade, 5% in Palm Beach), but it’s not exactly a firework either.
The overall single family house market in Southeast-Florida in April:
* Houses for sale: 23,241 (–0.2%)
* Inventory: 7 months (no change)
* Median list price: $291,333 (+0.8%)
* Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
* Houses sold last month: 3126 (–4.6%)
* Median selling price: $178,450 (+3.3%)
* Median selling price per sf: $99 (+3.5%)
 Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data Apr 2010 to Apr 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
A much much tighter spot is the modern home market.
That inventory is shrinking weekly – not even monthly – all the while demand for modern architecture is increasing, to a point where I am running out of modern houses in certain price categories.
My database of modern architecture for sale – and I know of and catalogue practically everything that is available – is down to 236 properties in all three counties. This is the lowest it’s ever been since five or six years. In the first three weeks of May alone, there was an inventory drop of 12.7%.
In addition, when a home’s value equation fits a buyer’s expectation, sellers can realise price increases, as the April data show.
So for modernist buyers, it is rather important to be prepared and to be able to react quickly when the right home comes along. Waiting for falling prices and an increasing selection will leave the stragglers on the street, and judging from the inquiries I receive, this situation will get worse as schools start again in August.
THE HOUSE MARKET OVERALL
“In like a lion and out like a lamb”: one of the common sayings about March weather.
If your observations confirmed it this March, chalk one up for the proverb. But if March did something else, don’t totally reject the proverb – it might turn out to be true next year.
And just like the weather, so is the housing market: variable, full of surprises, and it might even be changing. – Who would have guessed?
“In like Lion” is true so far - February sales data were baffling because they were so strong, and March continued that trend.
Looking at the three counties, Palm Beach had a slight increase (+3%) in list prices and a 44% increase in sold homes, albeit with an 8% decrease in selling prices. But: the disconnect between seller’s wishful thinking and buyer’s acceptance rose by 19 points to 189, the highest number since this number was recorded (2006).
Broward County was a bit more civil, with list prices up a fraction, a decreased disconnect, sales increasing by 23% and selling prices increasing by 3%. Buyers perhaps rewarded less greed?
Finally, Miami-Dade county fared even better with an 8% increase in selling prices combined with a 22% increase in sales.
The numbers:
* Houses for sale: 24,345
* Inventory: 7 months (-28.6%)
* Median list price: $288,950 (+2.7%)
* Median list price per sf: $141
* Houses sold last month: 3276 (+32.9%)
* Median selling price: $172,667 (no change)
* Median selling price per sf: $95 (no change)
(Percent changes are month-over-month)
 (SFH data Feb 2010 to Feb 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. Data source: SEF-MLS)THE MODERN HOME MARKET
It is time for the regular disclaimer/explanation how the modern-stats on this page are collected:
Data for all sold houses are reliable and for an MLS-participant (means for a Realtor®) easily accessible from the SEF-MLS. In contrast, sales data for modern houses are much more difficult to come by, because the MLS does not allow filtering for modern architecture. Therefore, all statistics for modern architecture rely on observed data, and those observations, coming from no less than seven MLS-searches, are very time-intensive and occasionally more art than science. ---As always, Tobias invites your comments and questions. And thank you for reading this page.
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