|
THE SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET
Yes, there are still plenty of condominiums for sale. Yes, there are still many foreclosures, and a shadow inventory (properties not official on the market) of unknown proportions.
But for now, cherry-picking time is over.
At least thats what my observations during everyday searches for clients say and what statistics confirm. The market for single family houses in Southeast Florida has turned:
- inventory, falling for the fourth month in a row, is now at six months considered a balanced market
- asking prices have held more or less stable since beginning of the year
- asking prices of sold homes have increased steadily since January
- selling prices increased the fourth month in a row, by a hefty 7.2% in May
The biggest selling price gains go to Palm Beach county, which also takes the crown for the biggest increase in asking prices of sold homes and selling prices (8% m-o-m).
It seems I was too skeptical when I wrote in May I am not quite sure where some of the exuberant reported data on our regional market in April come from.
The market for all single family houses in May:
* Houses for sale: 22,025 (0.2%)
* Inventory: 6.7 months (10%)
* Median list price: $294,300 (+1.0%)
* Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
* Houses sold last month: 3,308 (+5.8%)
* Median selling price: $ 191,333 (+7.2%)
* Median selling price per sf: 102 (+3.0%) 
Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data May 2010 to May 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: that's the dwindling inventory, in months. – Data source: SEF-MLSTHE MODERN HOME MARKET
As always - read: since I write this blog - the modern market precedes the movement of the overall market. That can be interpreted good or bad currently bad for buyers, as there are less and less modernist homes to choose from.
Inventory is dwindling monthly if not weekly, in May dropping the sixth month in a row. Not a nice record to write about if your expertise and speciality is promoting and brokering modern architecture. Compared to one year ago, in the most active price range under $500,000 there are 45% (!) fewer modern houses for sale.
Translation: tough times for buyers, who will have to be patient to find the right property and ready to react – viewing it, finances lined up, and writing an offer – as soon as it becomes available.
Owners and sellers of modern homes: please contact me so we can meet for a cup of tea and a chat. Please!
Against all intuition (and the arguments of some of my clients, savvy investors in their own right), June has been the month with the highest number of closings in South Florida – at least during the last four years. I’ll let you know as soon as possible if this holds true for 2011 as well.
---
In the meantime, thank you for reading this blog, let me know if you have any questions - and stay cool!
Several real estate markets are starting to show signs of improvement with home prices in the last quarter as the industry demonstrates more signs of stabilizing, according to Clear Capital's latest monthly Home Data Index Market Report.
REO saturation rates have improved in the majority of the country’s largest markets. However, many areas are still battling year-over-year price declines. Clear Capital’s index reports that quarter-over-quarter home price declines were 2.3 percent in the latest quarter, which is less than half compared to the previous month.
“The latest market report results through May suggest that home prices are starting to ease back from the heavy declines seen over the winter,” says Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “We are still far away from the strong demand needed to fully turn things around for the housing market. However, it is clear from the initial spring sales data that prices are softening, suggesting stabilization in the market."
The High Performers
Seven of the top 15 markets posted quarter-over-quarter property price gains in this month's report, compared to none in last month’s, according to Clear Capital. Here are the seven highest-performing major real estate markets, according to the report.
1. Washington, D.C.-Arlington, Va.-Alexandria, Va.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 4.5%
Year-to-year price changes (May 2010-May 2011): 4.9%
REO saturation: 17.5%
2. St. Louis, Mo.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 2.2%
Year-to-year price changes: -11.4%
REO saturation: 35.3%
3. Pittsburgh, Pa.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 1.6%
Year-to-year price changes: 0.3%
REO saturation: 10.9%
4. New York, N.Y.-Long Island, N.Y.-No. New Jersey, N.J.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 1.5%
Year-to-year price changes: 1.4%
REO saturation: 9.6%
5. Virginia Beach, Va.-Norfolk, Va.-Newport News, Va.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 1.4%
Year-to-year price changes: -13.2%
REO saturation: 22.4%
6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, Fla.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 0.6%
Year-to-year price changes: -5.2%
REO saturation: 39.6%
7. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.
Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 0.5%
Year-to-year price changes: -5%
REO saturation: 25%
Tthe lowest-performing market for the fifth straight month was Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Mich., with a 13.2 percent decrease in quarter-over-quarter home price change and a 58 percent REO saturation rate.
Source: “Clear Capital Reports Quarterly Home Price Decline Slows; Signs of Market Stability as Summer Approaches,” Clear Capital (June 9, 2011) via Realtor.mag
THE HOUSE MARKET OVERALL
The MLS data for April for Southeast Florida show a slight increase in selling prices for single family homes in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade county, while Broward county remained stable in volume and prices. Inventory is steady at seven months, very close to the normal range for a balanced market.
But the data raise two questions: with a plethora of short sales and foreclosures available (the latter often not on the MLS), it makes me wonder how small then must the non-distressed inventory be?
And secondly, as everyone has access to the same data set from the MLS, I am not quite sure where some of the exuberant reported data on our regional market in April comes from. Perhaps condos and townhomes? There certainly is activity and even selling price increases (6% m-o-m in Dade, 5% in Palm Beach), but it’s not exactly a firework either.
The overall single family house market in Southeast-Florida in April:
* Houses for sale: 23,241 (–0.2%)
* Inventory: 7 months (no change)
* Median list price: $291,333 (+0.8%)
* Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
* Houses sold last month: 3126 (–4.6%)
* Median selling price: $178,450 (+3.3%)
* Median selling price per sf: $99 (+3.5%)
 Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data Apr 2010 to Apr 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
A much much tighter spot is the modern home market.
That inventory is shrinking weekly – not even monthly – all the while demand for modern architecture is increasing, to a point where I am running out of modern houses in certain price categories.
My database of modern architecture for sale – and I know of and catalogue practically everything that is available – is down to 236 properties in all three counties. This is the lowest it’s ever been since five or six years. In the first three weeks of May alone, there was an inventory drop of 12.7%.
In addition, when a home’s value equation fits a buyer’s expectation, sellers can realise price increases, as the April data show.
So for modernist buyers, it is rather important to be prepared and to be able to react quickly when the right home comes along. Waiting for falling prices and an increasing selection will leave the stragglers on the street, and judging from the inquiries I receive, this situation will get worse as schools start again in August.
THE HOUSE MARKET OVERALL
“In like a lion and out like a lamb”: one of the common sayings about March weather.
If your observations confirmed it this March, chalk one up for the proverb. But if March did something else, don’t totally reject the proverb – it might turn out to be true next year.
And just like the weather, so is the housing market: variable, full of surprises, and it might even be changing. – Who would have guessed?
“In like Lion” is true so far - February sales data were baffling because they were so strong, and March continued that trend.
Looking at the three counties, Palm Beach had a slight increase (+3%) in list prices and a 44% increase in sold homes, albeit with an 8% decrease in selling prices. But: the disconnect between seller’s wishful thinking and buyer’s acceptance rose by 19 points to 189, the highest number since this number was recorded (2006).
Broward County was a bit more civil, with list prices up a fraction, a decreased disconnect, sales increasing by 23% and selling prices increasing by 3%. Buyers perhaps rewarded less greed?
Finally, Miami-Dade county fared even better with an 8% increase in selling prices combined with a 22% increase in sales.
The numbers:
* Houses for sale: 24,345
* Inventory: 7 months (-28.6%)
* Median list price: $288,950 (+2.7%)
* Median list price per sf: $141
* Houses sold last month: 3276 (+32.9%)
* Median selling price: $172,667 (no change)
* Median selling price per sf: $95 (no change)
(Percent changes are month-over-month)
 (SFH data Feb 2010 to Feb 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. Data source: SEF-MLS)THE MODERN HOME MARKET
It is time for the regular disclaimer/explanation how the modern-stats on this page are collected:
Data for all sold houses are reliable and for an MLS-participant (means for a Realtor®) easily accessible from the SEF-MLS. In contrast, sales data for modern houses are much more difficult to come by, because the MLS does not allow filtering for modern architecture. Therefore, all statistics for modern architecture rely on observed data, and those observations, coming from no less than seven MLS-searches, are very time-intensive and occasionally more art than science. ---As always, Tobias invites your comments and questions. And thank you for reading this page.
Headed for destruction unless quickly purchased, you can buy one of these livable works of art and keep it from doom.
Alert 1: Are you the ultimate tinkerer? Good with tools? Want a house for $14,000? The Collins Street Lustron in Nashville NC, less than an hour from Raleigh, is owned by the church next door which needs a new parking lot. This classic 1950’s prefab house will be carted off to the dump within two weeks unless you act now. The demolition contractor hired recently by the church, Lane Johnson, has become a big Lustron fan and has offered a short “stay of execution.” Lane will painstakingly disassemble the modular Lustron (like an erector set) and put it on a truck for $14,000. That’s an entire house, delivered to you, for the cost of a car. He’ll even get you the assembly manual. Bring this bad boy to your backyard! For more information, contact Tobias please.  Above: home by Lustron, $14,000. Below: home by Voorhees, $269,000 Alert 2: It takes a special kind of person to design and build their own home from scratch, and [Raleigh] city planner John Voorhees did just that in 1961. 2727 North Mayview is wildly central inside Raleigh, just off Brooks Avenue. You could not get a better location. The owners have put the property on the market as a lot, which means certain death for this unique Modernist home. I spoke with the listing agent, and no doubt about it, the house needs some work but can be saved by the right person. $269,900. For more information, contact Tobias please. Alert 3: As reported earlier, News 14 Carolina picked up our national preservation alert for A.G. Odell’s Lassiter House in Charlotte, NC. Steel beams support the roof and eliminate the need for load-bearing interior walls, thereby enabling large open spaces to predominate throughout the interior. A particularly ingenious scheme was an arrangement whereby the dining table could be set in the kitchen, complete with food and adornments, and slid through the wall into the dining room. Appeared in Better Homes and Gardens September 1956. Charles McMurray did an addition in the 1970's. Included a saltwater pool at one point. In need of major renovations.
Unless sold, this unique modernist house will be demolished in June. 3 BR, 2.5 baths, $785,000.
Watch the video, and contact Tobias for more information please.
____
Via Triangle Modernist Houses
THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERALL
The February market for houses in the Southeast Florida Tri-County area, encompassing Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, suddenly turned extremely active. Fewer homes came on the market, and while the numbers show a very slight increase in median list prices, the number of sold homes is up drastically, with largely unchanged but rather soft selling prices. Interesting also: the very volatile inventory curve over the last six months.
Pent up demand or investors? The reasons for the sudden activity are not quite clear to me or many of my colleagues. One bird doesn't make spring though; it remains to be seen how this will develop over summer. Certainly Florida unemployment hasn't changed much, which is the biggest factor in property purchase decisions.
The numbers:
- Houses for sale: 25,394 (10 months supply, -25.7% m-o-m)
- Median list price: $281,300 (+3.6% m-o-m)
- Median list price per sf: $137
- Units sold last month: 2,465 (+29.2%)
- Median selling price: $172,234 (+0.2% m-o-m)
- Median selling price per sf: $96
 (SFH data Feb 2010 to Feb 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. Data source: SEF-MLS)
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
In the meantime, in the modern market available inventory as well as prices of observed sales are further sinking, while prices per sf went up last month.
The lower end of the market – approx. under $1.5m, really bad under $800k – still looks plundered like a supermarket shelf just before a storm. Good homes generate a lot of interest from multiple buyers and go under contract fast, so it's not the time to lean back and relax if an interesting home does become available.
___
As always, your comments and questions are welcome!
If you wonder where the January market data went: for lack of sufficient data I could not publish them so far.
As I am in the process of collecting February data, I will include January statistics if the data set for that month is large enough.
Expect the data for February to be published here around mid-March – and thank you for your interest.
WELCOMEto all new readers and to all regulars from my ModernSouthFlorida-blog.
I moved the blog over to this site since keeping the two sites – blog and website – under one roof makes much more sense then in two different houses. A bit like two teenagers: easier to keep them in line and on track.
As soon as there is a blog-import feature by this site's host (spring 2011), all previous bog-posts will be moved over here. Until then, you can read them here.
So off we go, with the riveting December market statistics for homes in the Southeast Florida market:THE OVERALL HOUSE MARKETSingle family home numbers for December are rather tame (or lame), after a little bit of a firework in early and mid-summer last year.
Highest median selling prices in 2010 were recorded in March at $210,233. That is 11 percent above year's close, which itself was nearly the same as the median January selling price.
Median asking prices last year dropped by 15 percent, and the end may not be here yet. Inventory fluctuated between 9 and 14 months, ending in December at 9 months with 26,826 homes for sale, but a strong absorption of 2,977 houses.  (SFH data Jan 2010 to Dec 2010. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. Data source: SEF-MLS) THE MODERN HOMES MARKET An interesting development continues in the market* for modern homes - it moves around like a pesky mosquito:
- sellers becoming more realistic, asking prices head slightly downwards, plus lots of price reductions
- selling prices (per modernist home and per sf) are increasing
- a decline in modern home inventory (much more pronounced at the end of January, down to ca. 280 homes for sale so far)
- an increase of 26 percent (!) of the total Dollar volume for sale since April 2010, pointing to a definite shift towards the high end.
As a result, lower-priced modern homes (under ca. $1.5m) don't stay on the market for long. Questions, comments? I'd love to hear from you!
_____________________________________________________
(*Please remember that these data are for observed sales only, but still, they continue a trend observed for several months now).
THE RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERALL
The November single family home market wasn’t exactly fun. The wee bit of activity that was came at the price of, um, the prices: median list prices fell a timid 1.2 percent, but median selling prices dropped a hefty 8.3 percent. But that still did not buoy the market.
So who’s asleep at the wheel: sellers on 500mg Xanax, wishfully thinking their house is so much better than anyone else’s? Or real estate agents, desperately chasing any listing they can get, as overpriced as it may be? Probably both. Case in point: a house in my neighbourhood, fresh on the market and according to a quick analysis approx. 25 percent (!) overpriced. That’s either major brawn or what’s called “shooting with wet powder”. Good luck. – The November numbers:
* Inventory for sale: 27,538 (13 months supply)
* Median list price: $274,667
* Median list price per sf: $138
* Units sold last month: 2,136 (3.7%)
* Median selling price: $186,667 (-8.3%)
* Median selling price per sf: $105
(SFH data Nov 2009 to Nov 2010. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. Data source: SEF-MLS)
THE MODERN MARKET
The modern market in November went against trend, as this segment so often does: compare the selling price uptick in modern homes vs. selling prices of all homes (green curve). That doesn’t mean stellar performance and ecstatic sellers, but despite inventory going up and absorption rate down, median selling prices as well as selling price per sf managed a 15+ percent increase over the previous month.
Unchanged is the market segmentation: few good properties under ca. $1.3m - $1.5m, really difficult under $600,000, and plenty to choose from above ca. $1.5m to $2m. I do not foresee this situation changing any time soon. And with mortgage rates possibly rising – despite stubborn unemployment, a key factor in housing activity – more buyers may become active in the market.
Have a nice weekend!
All ModernSouthFlorida-blog posts until November 2010 can be read under http://ModernSouthFlorida.blogspot.com. As soon as my host offers an import tool (spring 2011?), all archived posts will be available on this site as well.
|
|
RSS Feed