As the home-buying season begins in earnest in many parts of the country, Southeast Florida – which enjoyed an unusually mild winter, to the dismay of many including me – continues on its path of odd market behaviour, namely rapidly shrinking inventory accompanied by mildly rising asking and selling prices.
As dramatic as the numbers for single family home sales are, looking at the Tri-County area won't tell the whole picture, so I will briefly point out some of the differences between Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade... please read on at the blog The Modernist Angle
Lyrics from Cole Porter's famous "I've got you under my skin", written in 1936, came to my mind this month. I admit that I have Nicole Henry's lovely version of that song constantly in my ears and on iTunes. To me, uptempo–and perhaps the great American Songbook–just seems to be her forte.
So, is Nicole singing to or even for home buyers?
I doubt it. But the February numbers for single family homes (condos, coops and townhouses not included) should get prospective buyers thinking of Cole Porter.
In essence, more or less stable asking prices and (year-over-year) slightly soft selling prices created a very very active market in February–with dramatically falling inventory (may I say "dramatically" when it's 50 percent or more?) and a hefty spike in the number of sold houses.
As always, the table is accompanied by a lovely graphic:
Coming back to Nicole Henry and her Cole Porter interpretation: time for buyers to wake up. True, not every buyer is flexible in his or her plans, but those who are should get off the benches. Now.
Table: Single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties. Chart: Single family home data Mar 2011 to Feb 2012. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS. Also published at http://www.TheModernistAngle.com._
Several regular readers have suggested to post the monthly market data for home sales also on my blog. I'd be happy to: Starting this month, they will appear here as well as on http://www.themodernistangle.com To business: January mostly continued the December trend – a dwindling number of houses on the market, increased asking prices overall but softer asking and selling prices for those homes that actually closed.
Are sellers asleep at the wheel? Because why would anyone increase the asking price, when in actuality prices are giving in (4.5% month-over-month and 6.8% year-ver-year)? Doesn't make much sense.
What I suspect is typified by a modernist seller in North Broward: the property is on the market with different four agents since 2008, so they just raised the price again by $100k. Clever; they must know something no one else knows ("my property is so much better than the rest"). Too bad buyers are too dumb to see the light. I don't see it, either.
In general, the market is far from homogeneous: trophy properties as well as those sectors most in demand – say $200,000 to $500,000 – are rapidly disappearing, and there is no sign this will change. In modern architecture, the availabilities are even tighter (as regular readers know, I compile but do not publish monthly market data for modern home sales anymore. They are available for clients and appraisers on request).
There is also a distinct incline heading north from Dade to Broward to Palm Beach, both in regards to asking as well as to selling prices, absolut and per square foot.
The January numbers:
Single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties.
And the matching chart:
Single family home data Feb 2011 to Jan 2012. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS
If you have any questions, or would like more detailed data pertaining to a purchase or sale you consider, please let me know – I look forward to hearing from you.
_Quiet December wasn't so quiet after all, it turns out.
Real Estate newsletters bombard you with news about skyrocketing condo sales in Miami (who's buying?) but the market for houses was also rather lively for this time of the year. Too bad that my tools don't allow a seller origin analysis.
All the activity didn't translate into price changes though: listing as well as selling prices didn't move m-o-m, while y-o-y there was a 10 percent dent to be observed.
In the same time though, inventory dropped a hefty 24% (I added y-o-y changes behind the m-o-m changes to mix things up a bit for you). Again, supply and demand rules seem not to be applicable right now:
Houses for sale: 19,784 (-1.2% / -24.4%)
Inventory: 6.5 (-6.4% / -30.4%)
Median list price: $303,800 (0.5% / -3.0%)
Med. list price per sf: $143 (99.8% / -10.4%)
Houses sold last mo: 3,065 (4.8% / 4.4%)
Med. selling price: $196,000 (0% / -10.9%)
Med. selling price per sf: $99 (0% / -10.5%)
_Table: single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties. Changes are month-over-month / year-over-year. Chart: Single family home data Jan 2011 to Dec 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS
Overshadowed by the Thanksgiving holiday, _November sales of single family homes tend to begin quiet and then come to a slow crawl.
The last part of that statement will be seen in December, but overall there certainly wasn't much movement. However, inventory keeps falling, with stable prices, which in itself is astonishing.
Houses for sale: 20,031 (-1.6%)
Inventory: 6.9 mos (-6.4%)
Median list price: 301,500 (+0.5%)
Median list price per sf: $143 (no change)
Houses sold last month: 3,065 (+4.8%)
Median selling price: $189,467 (no change)
Median selling price per sf: $97 (no change)
Though inventory is over 17% lower in November 2011 than November 2010, year over year prices have dropped by 10%. So dwindling inventory does not always equate rising or even stable prices.
At least so far.
_Table: single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties. Changes are month-over-month. Chart: Single family home data Dec 2010 to Nov 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS
Matching the greyish economic mood in large parts of the country, October numbers for single family homes are a dull story.
While the number of houses lingering on the market didn’t budge much, the number of closed sales dropped quite a bit month-over-month, 20 percent to be exact. That of course results in rising home inventory (though not in the modernist market!).
Interesting is that despite the lack of movement, neither listing nor selling prices changed – stubborness or lack of maneuvering room, due to having reached the bottom already?
As some media point to increased pending sales, remember my previous warning about that number: it means nothing. I see quite a few transactions going in and out of contract more than once, an abnormaly several years ago. So for now, I will disregard pending sales alltogether.
The numbers for all Single Family Homes in the three counties:
Houses for sale: 20,355 (-1.1%)
Inventory (Mo): 7.4 (24.3%)
Median list price: $300,000 (0.1%)
Median list price per sf: $144 (100.2%)
Houses sold last month: 2,756 (-20.2%)
Median selling price: $178,300 (0.1%)
Median selling price per sf: $97 (-2.7%)
Table: all regional single family homes for sale/sold; data per last month’s end. Changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data October 2010 to October 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS