_Quiet December wasn't so quiet after all, it turns out.
Real Estate newsletters bombard you with news about skyrocketing condo sales in Miami (who's buying?) but the market for houses was also rather lively for this time of the year. Too bad that my tools don't allow a seller origin analysis.
All the activity didn't translate into price changes though: listing as well as selling prices didn't move m-o-m, while y-o-y there was a 10 percent dent to be observed.
In the same time though, inventory dropped a hefty 24% (I added y-o-y changes behind the m-o-m changes to mix things up a bit for you). Again, supply and demand rules seem not to be applicable right now:
Houses for sale: 19,784 (-1.2% / -24.4%)
Inventory: 6.5 (-6.4% / -30.4%)
Median list price: $303,800 (0.5% / -3.0%)
Med. list price per sf: $143 (99.8% / -10.4%)
Houses sold last mo: 3,065 (4.8% / 4.4%)
Med. selling price: $196,000 (0% / -10.9%)
Med. selling price per sf: $99 (0% / -10.5%)
_Table: single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties. Changes are month-over-month / year-over-year. Chart: Single family home data Jan 2011 to Dec 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS
Overshadowed by the Thanksgiving holiday, _November sales of single family homes tend to begin quiet and then come to a slow crawl.
The last part of that statement will be seen in December, but overall there certainly wasn't much movement. However, inventory keeps falling, with stable prices, which in itself is astonishing.
Houses for sale: 20,031 (-1.6%)
Inventory: 6.9 mos (-6.4%)
Median list price: 301,500 (+0.5%)
Median list price per sf: $143 (no change)
Houses sold last month: 3,065 (+4.8%)
Median selling price: $189,467 (no change)
Median selling price per sf: $97 (no change)
Though inventory is over 17% lower in November 2011 than November 2010, year over year prices have dropped by 10%. So dwindling inventory does not always equate rising or even stable prices.
At least so far.
_Table: single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties. Changes are month-over-month. Chart: Single family home data Dec 2010 to Nov 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS
Matching the greyish economic mood in large parts of the country, October numbers for single family homes are a dull story.
While the number of houses lingering on the market didn’t budge much, the number of closed sales dropped quite a bit month-over-month, 20 percent to be exact. That of course results in rising home inventory (though not in the modernist market!).
Interesting is that despite the lack of movement, neither listing nor selling prices changed – stubborness or lack of maneuvering room, due to having reached the bottom already?
As some media point to increased pending sales, remember my previous warning about that number: it means nothing. I see quite a few transactions going in and out of contract more than once, an abnormaly several years ago. So for now, I will disregard pending sales alltogether.
The numbers for all Single Family Homes in the three counties:
Houses for sale: 20,355 (-1.1%)
Inventory (Mo): 7.4 (24.3%)
Median list price: $300,000 (0.1%)
Median list price per sf: $144 (100.2%)
Houses sold last month: 2,756 (-20.2%)
Median selling price: $178,300 (0.1%)
Median selling price per sf: $97 (-2.7%)
Table: all regional single family homes for sale/sold; data per last month’s end. Changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data October 2010 to October 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
At some point, if you read this column regularly, you must think I'm a grumpy old fart, uncontent and miserable.
And here grumpy goes again: What is it with the press?
Specifically, the housing numbers the press celebrated last and this week.
Perhaps you think I live on another planet, or had too much beer at the Wiesn (aka Oktoberfest–and no, I didn't make it this year.) Perhaps the housing data and headlines released for August have a self-serving purpose. But they are definitely nothing to be jubilant about, though that's what some media are–again–screaming into our ears.
THE SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET
Despite a tiny bit of action in Palm Beach County, overall nothing really improved last month:
Median asking prices have held steady in all three counties. – Great. And that's the good news? Really?
Median selling prices per square foot under air did not change in all three counties.
Median selling prices increased a measly 3.0% in Palm Beach, but didn't budge in Broward and Miami-Dade. And year-over-year, median selling prices actually went down another 5.1%
Inventory fell a bit–to a large part due to less foreclosures and short sales
The numbers for all Single Family Homes in the three counties:
Houses for sale: 20,579 (-1.2%)
Inventory: 6.2 months (-10.9%)
Median list price: $299,667 (+0.6%)
Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
Houses sold last month: 3,454 (+10.4%)
Median selling price: $184,833 (+0.8%)
Median selling price per sf: $100 (+0.3%)
Table: all regional single family homes for sale/sold; data per last month’s end. Changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data August 2010 to August 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
As explained last month, I do not publish modern market data here anymore. Emphasis on here.
I still compile market and sales statistics for modern architecture, including asking and selling prices, prices per square foot, time on market and price differentials.
The complete data will continue to be available to my brokerage and consulting clients–just not publicly on this site.
If you have an interest orneed for modern market statistics, I welcome you to contact me anytime.
After the party comes the after-party. Or the hang-over.
And as so often, that’s the case here with July housing numbers. No wonder: June sales stats (for single family homes only; condos and townhomes are not subject of this column) were exceptional, while in July the general public experienced a congressional budget debate that was without precedence, tainted by obstructionism, vitriolic language and general nastiness. Consumers’ approval of Congress promptly dove way below 14 percent. Serves ‘em right.
But if that wasn’t enough, while politicians were slinging mud or worse, unemployment in South-East Florida didn’t budge. That sapped the will to sign on the dotted line from a large contingent of home buyers, especially those who have to face lenders.
Yes, those same lenders who would have given a mortgage to our Scottish Terriers a short while ago, and who now behave like a virgin facing a room full of gang-bangers. Who wants to buy a home under these conditions? Low rates alone don't cut it, friends.
If only sellers had noticed. They sure didn’t in July: while all median list prices went up a notch, median list prices of homes that actually sold plummeted nearly 10 percent, median selling prices went down more than 4 percent, and the numbers of houses that sold just tanked. A wake up call? We’ll see.
The July numbers:
Houses for sale: 20,828 (-2.3%)
Inventory: 7.0 months (+14.6%)
Median list price: $298,000 (+1.7%)
Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
Houses sold last month: 3,128 (-11.5%)
Median selling price: $183,333 (-4.5%)
Median selling price per sf: $100 (-1.6%)
Table: all regional single family homes for sale/sold; data per last month’s end. Changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data July 2010 to July 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
In case you are as modernist-crazed as I am, love stats and were looking forward to the newest market data for modern architecture: sorry, but no mas. At least not here.
What happened?
Simple: prospective consulting clients, a builder couple, approached me to assist them breaking into the South Florida market for modern homes. Part of the deal would have been my extensive modern-market statistics, going back at least six years. You know: past and present selling prices for modern architecture, which price ranges sell best, in which locations, in which towns, at what prices per square feet, with what type of amenities, etc.
But for free.
That didn’t work for me as you can imagine. I am surely not going to give proprietary and valuable data away, not on this website nor in any other form.
I apologize to my three monthly regulars, but from now on, I will not publicize monthly modern market statistics anymore. The data is available to clients though, and if you are interested, please contact me. Sorry!
The market for single family homes in Southeast Florida (three counties Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade) in June proved the old saying again
“In the month of June, housing sales see a boon”.
Ahem. Now you also know why some persons were not admitted into Rapping 101.
Seriously: as in the last four years, June is the month so far with the highest number of SFH closings in all three counties (in 2009 it tied with December).
Those June closings would have been signed into contract in April or May.
Does that mean buyers want to buy before school’s out? Before it gets too hot? Before Memorial Day? This Realtor is at a loss to explain.
Some people may argue that winter should be the peak real estate season, when the Florida population swells and there are more potential buyers around, especially from colder climates. But not so, at least not for single family homes.
Another oddity: while inventory keeps tightening, prices still slide – not every month, but certainly year over year; minus 5.0 percent in this case. Go figure.
The June numbers:
SFH for sale: 21,318 (-3.2%)
Inventory (months): 6 (-9.0%)
Median list price: $293,150 (-0.4%)
Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
Houses sold last month: 3,536 (6.9%)
Median selling price: $192,000 (0.3%)
Median selling price per sf: $101 (-0.3%)
Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data June 2010 to June 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: that's the dwindling inventory, in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
Despite what it looks like – a modernist inventory spike in June – there really isn’t one. Easy to say. But it doesn’t feel like an upswing in inventory; quite in contrast.
As explained last month, the number of available homes under $1M shrank by 25% year over year, the number offered under $500K went down by a hefty 45%. The little inventory uptick in June (per June 30th to 255 modern homes) has already been erased – as of writing this post, it is down again. And so are absolute listing and selling prices.
(Data and graph temporarily not available – sorry)
Thinking about selling your modern home and need an inside perspective of the modernist market?
Out to buy, and need a Realtor who gets modernism?
Then please call me at 954.834.3088 or email me anytime – and until next month!
Yes, there are still plenty of condominiums for sale. Yes, there are still many foreclosures, and a shadow inventory (properties not official on the market) of unknown proportions.
But for now, cherry-picking time is over.
At least thats what my observations during everyday searches for clients say and what statistics confirm. The market for single family houses in Southeast Florida has turned:
inventory, falling for the fourth month in a row, is now at six months considered a balanced market
asking prices have held more or less stable since beginning of the year
asking prices of sold homes have increased steadily since January
selling prices increased the fourth month in a row, by a hefty 7.2% in May
The biggest selling price gains go to Palm Beach county, which also takes the crown for the biggest increase in asking prices of sold homes and selling prices (8% m-o-m).
It seems I was too skeptical when I wrote in May I am not quite sure where some of the exuberant reported data on our regional market in April come from.
The market for all single family houses in May:
* Houses for sale: 22,025 (0.2%) * Inventory: 6.7 months (10%) * Median list price: $294,300 (+1.0%) * Median list price per sf: $142 (no change) * Houses sold last month: 3,308 (+5.8%) * Median selling price: $ 191,333 (+7.2%) * Median selling price per sf: 102 (+3.0%)
Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data May 2010 to May 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: that's the dwindling inventory, in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
As always - read: since I write this blog - the modern market precedes the movement of the overall market. That can be interpreted good or bad currently bad for buyers, as there are less and less modernist homes to choose from.
Inventory is dwindling monthly if not weekly, in May dropping the sixth month in a row. Not a nice record to write about if your expertise and speciality is promoting and brokering modern architecture. Compared to one year ago, in the most active price range under $500,000 there are 45% (!) fewer modern houses for sale.
Translation: tough times for buyers, who will have to be patient to find the right property and ready to react – viewing it, finances lined up, and writing an offer – as soon as it becomes available.
Owners and sellers of modern homes: please contact me so we can meet for a cup of tea and a chat. Please!
Against all intuition (and the arguments of some of my clients, savvy investors in their own right), June has been the month with the highest number of closings in South Florida – at least during the last four years. I’ll let you know as soon as possible if this holds true for 2011 as well.
--- In the meantime, thank you for reading this blog, let me know if you have any questions - and stay cool!
Several real estate markets are starting to show signs of improvement with home prices in the last quarter as the industry demonstrates more signs of stabilizing, according to Clear Capital's latest monthly Home Data Index Market Report.
REO saturation rates have improved in the majority of the country’s largest markets. However, many areas are still battling year-over-year price declines. Clear Capital’s index reports that quarter-over-quarter home price declines were 2.3 percent in the latest quarter, which is less than half compared to the previous month.
“The latest market report results through May suggest that home prices are starting to ease back from the heavy declines seen over the winter,” says Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “We are still far away from the strong demand needed to fully turn things around for the housing market. However, it is clear from the initial spring sales data that prices are softening, suggesting stabilization in the market."
The High Performers
Seven of the top 15 markets posted quarter-over-quarter property price gains in this month's report, compared to none in last month’s, according to Clear Capital. Here are the seven highest-performing major real estate markets, according to the report.
4. New York, N.Y.-Long Island, N.Y.-No. New Jersey, N.J. Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 1.5% Year-to-year price changes: 1.4% REO saturation: 9.6%
5. Virginia Beach, Va.-Norfolk, Va.-Newport News, Va. Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 1.4% Year-to-year price changes: -13.2% REO saturation: 22.4%
6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, Fla. Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 0.6% Year-to-year price changes: -5.2% REO saturation: 39.6%
7. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. Quarter-to-quarter home price change: 0.5% Year-to-year price changes: -5% REO saturation: 25%
Tthe lowest-performing market for the fifth straight month was Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Mich., with a 13.2 percent decrease in quarter-over-quarter home price change and a 58 percent REO saturation rate.
The MLS data for April for Southeast Florida show a slight increase in selling prices for single family homes in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade county, while Broward county remained stable in volume and prices. Inventory is steady at seven months, very close to the normal range for a balanced market.
But the data raise two questions: with a plethora of short sales and foreclosures available (the latter often not on the MLS), it makes me wonder how small then must the non-distressed inventory be?
And secondly, as everyone has access to the same data set from the MLS, I am not quite sure where some of the exuberant reported data on our regional market in April comes from. Perhaps condos and townhomes? There certainly is activity and even selling price increases (6% m-o-m in Dade, 5% in Palm Beach), but it’s not exactly a firework either.
The overall single family house market in Southeast-Florida in April:
* Houses for sale: 23,241 (–0.2%) * Inventory: 7 months (no change) * Median list price: $291,333 (+0.8%) * Median list price per sf: $142 (no change) * Houses sold last month: 3126 (–4.6%) * Median selling price: $178,450 (+3.3%) * Median selling price per sf: $99 (+3.5%)
Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data Apr 2010 to Apr 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
A much much tighter spot is the modern home market.
That inventory is shrinking weekly – not even monthly – all the while demand for modern architecture is increasing, to a point where I am running out of modern houses in certain price categories.
My database of modern architecture for sale – and I know of and catalogue practically everything that is available – is down to 236 properties in all three counties. This is the lowest it’s ever been since five or six years. In the first three weeks of May alone, there was an inventory drop of 12.7%.
In addition, when a home’s value equation fits a buyer’s expectation, sellers can realise price increases, as the April data show.
So for modernist buyers, it is rather important to be prepared and to be able to react quickly when the right home comes along. Waiting for falling prices and an increasing selection will leave the stragglers on the street, and judging from the inquiries I receive, this situation will get worse as schools start again in August.
Tobias Kaiser works as an independent real estate consultant and licensed Realtor in Florida since 1990. He specialises in modern architecture and net leased investments.
RSS Feed