_Quiet December wasn't so quiet after all, it turns out.
Real Estate newsletters bombard you with news about skyrocketing condo sales in Miami (who's buying?) but the market for houses was also rather lively for this time of the year. Too bad that my tools don't allow a seller origin analysis.
All the activity didn't translate into price changes though: listing as well as selling prices didn't move m-o-m, while y-o-y there was a 10 percent dent to be observed.
In the same time though, inventory dropped a hefty 24% (I added y-o-y changes behind the m-o-m changes to mix things up a bit for you). Again, supply and demand rules seem not to be applicable right now:
_Table: single family home data per month’s end for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade (Florida) counties. Changes are month-over-month / year-over-year.
Chart: Single family home data Jan 2011 to Dec 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data compiled from SEF-MLS
Matching the greyish economic mood in large parts of the country, October numbers for single family homes are a dull story.
While the number of houses lingering on the market didn’t budge much, the number of closed sales dropped quite a bit month-over-month, 20 percent to be exact. That of course results in rising home inventory (though not in the modernist market!).
Interesting is that despite the lack of movement, neither listing nor selling prices changed – stubborness or lack of maneuvering room, due to having reached the bottom already?
As some media point to increased pending sales, remember my previous warning about that number: it means nothing. I see quite a few transactions going in and out of contract more than once, an abnormaly several years ago. So for now, I will disregard pending sales alltogether.
The numbers for all Single Family Homes in the three counties:
Table: all regional single family homes for sale/sold; data per last month’s end. Changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data October 2010 to October 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET
The market for single family homes in Southeast Florida (three counties Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade) in June proved the old saying again
“In the month of June, housing sales see a boon”.
Ahem. Now you also know why some persons were not admitted into Rapping 101.
Seriously: as in the last four years, June is the month so far with the highest number of SFH closings in all three counties (in 2009 it tied with December).
Those June closings would have been signed into contract in April or May.
Does that mean buyers want to buy before school’s out? Before it gets too hot? Before Memorial Day? This Realtor is at a loss to explain.
Some people may argue that winter should be the peak real estate season, when the Florida population swells and there are more potential buyers around, especially from colder climates. But not so, at least not for single family homes.
Another oddity: while inventory keeps tightening, prices still slide – not every month, but certainly year over year; minus 5.0 percent in this case. Go figure.
The June numbers:
Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data June 2010 to June 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: that's the dwindling inventory, in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
Despite what it looks like – a modernist inventory spike in June – there really isn’t one. Easy to say. But it doesn’t feel like an upswing in inventory; quite in contrast.
As explained last month, the number of available homes under $1M shrank by 25% year over year, the number offered under $500K went down by a hefty 45%. The little inventory uptick in June (per June 30th to 255 modern homes) has already been erased – as of writing this post, it is down again. And so are absolute listing and selling prices.
(Data and graph temporarily not available – sorry)
Thinking about selling your modern home and need an inside perspective of the modernist market?
Out to buy, and need a Realtor who gets modernism?
Then please call me at 954.834.3088 or email me anytime – and until next month!
THE SINGLE FAMILY HOME MARKET
Yes, there are still plenty of condominiums for sale. Yes, there are still many foreclosures, and a shadow inventory (properties not official on the market) of unknown proportions.
But for now, cherry-picking time is over.
At least thats what my observations during everyday searches for clients say and what statistics confirm. The market for single family houses in Southeast Florida has turned:
It seems I was too skeptical when I wrote in May I am not quite sure where some of the exuberant reported data on our regional market in April come from.
The market for all single family houses in May:
* Houses for sale: 22,025 (0.2%)
* Inventory: 6.7 months (10%)
* Median list price: $294,300 (+1.0%)
* Median list price per sf: $142 (no change)
* Houses sold last month: 3,308 (+5.8%)
* Median selling price: $ 191,333 (+7.2%)
* Median selling price per sf: 102 (+3.0%)
Table: all single family homes per SEF-MLS; data per month’s end. Percent changes are month-over-month. – Chart: SFH data May 2010 to May 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: that's the dwindling inventory, in months. – Data source: SEF-MLS
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
As always - read: since I write this blog - the modern market precedes the movement of the overall market. That can be interpreted good or bad currently bad for buyers, as there are less and less modernist homes to choose from.
Inventory is dwindling monthly if not weekly, in May dropping the sixth month in a row. Not a nice record to write about if your expertise and speciality is promoting and brokering modern architecture. Compared to one year ago, in the most active price range under $500,000 there are 45% (!) fewer modern houses for sale.
Translation: tough times for buyers, who will have to be patient to find the right property and ready to react – viewing it, finances lined up, and writing an offer – as soon as it becomes available.
Owners and sellers of modern homes: please contact me so we can meet for a cup of tea and a chat. Please!
Against all intuition (and the arguments of some of my clients, savvy investors in their own right), June has been the month with the highest number of closings in South Florida – at least during the last four years. I’ll let you know as soon as possible if this holds true for 2011 as well.
In the meantime, thank you for reading this blog, let me know if you have any questions - and stay cool!
THE HOUSE MARKET OVERALL
“In like a lion and out like a lamb”: one of the common sayings about March weather.
If your observations confirmed it this March, chalk one up for the proverb. But if March did something else, don’t totally reject the proverb – it might turn out to be true next year.
And just like the weather, so is the housing market: variable, full of surprises, and it might even be changing. – Who would have guessed?
“In like Lion” is true so far - February sales data were baffling because they were so strong, and March continued that trend.
Looking at the three counties, Palm Beach had a slight increase (+3%) in list prices and a 44% increase in sold homes, albeit with an 8% decrease in selling prices. But: the disconnect between seller’s wishful thinking and buyer’s acceptance rose by 19 points to 189, the highest number since this number was recorded (2006).
Broward County was a bit more civil, with list prices up a fraction, a decreased disconnect, sales increasing by 23% and selling prices increasing by 3%. Buyers perhaps rewarded less greed?
Finally, Miami-Dade county fared even better with an 8% increase in selling prices combined with a 22% increase in sales.
* Houses for sale: 24,345
* Inventory: 7 months (-28.6%)
* Median list price: $288,950 (+2.7%)
* Median list price per sf: $141
* Houses sold last month: 3276 (+32.9%)
* Median selling price: $172,667 (no change)
* Median selling price per sf: $95 (no change)
(Percent changes are month-over-month)
(SFH data Feb 2010 to Feb 2011. Red: median list price, green: median selling price, blue: inventory in months. Data source: SEF-MLS)
THE MODERN HOME MARKET
It is time for the regular disclaimer/explanation how the modern-stats on this page are collected:
Data for all sold houses are reliable and for an MLS-participant (means for a Realtor®) easily accessible from the SEF-MLS.
In contrast, sales data for modern houses are much more difficult to come by, because the MLS does not allow filtering for modern architecture.
Therefore, all statistics for modern architecture rely on observed data, and those observations, coming from no less than seven MLS-searches, are very time-intensive and occasionally more art than science.
As always, Tobias invites your comments and questions. And thank you for reading this page.
Tobias Kaiser is an independent real estate consultant and licensed Realtor in Florida since 1990. He specializes in modern architecture and net leased investments.